A Practical Framework For Leading in Uncertainty
Much of our coaching and consulting work centers on one seemingly simple question: What can you control right now?
As leaders, we’re operating in an increasingly complex world with so many factors outside of our control. When everything feels unstable, it’s easy for teams to spend time and energy on issues that are far outside their reach. That’s where frustration, distraction, and burnout begin.
In The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People, Stephen Covey introduced the concept of the Circle of Concern, the Circle of Influence and the Circle of Control. Effective leaders direct their energy toward what they can directly control and what they can meaningfully influence, rather than obsessing over what they can’t change.
Significant research over the past several decades backs up this strategy. Julian Rotter’s research on locus of control demonstrated that individuals who believe they have influence over outcomes show higher motivation and resilience (Rotter 1966). Suzanne Kobasa’s research on psychological resilience showed that perceived control is a critical buffer against stress in uncertain environments (Kobasa, 1979). More recently, research by Martin Seligman in 2011 on learned optimism reinforced that perceived agency significantly influences resilience and performance outcomes. In 2012, Carsten Wrosch and Gregory Miller’s findings reinforced the importance of distinguishing between what can and can’t be changed.
This is why so much of our work at Neptune Coaching focuses on helping leaders and teams sort their challenges into three buckets: control, influence, and concern. Then we translate that into action.
For managers, this then means that you:
Clarify what the team can control. Be explicit about what the team owns, what success looks like, and where they have full decision rights.
Create visible wins. Break large goals into achievable milestones so the team experiences progress and can celebrate those wins.
Redirect energy. When conversations drift toward uncontrollable factors, acknowledge them and refocus the discussion on actionable next steps.
Expand influence intentionally. As credibility grows through consistent execution, coach your team on how to build relationships and shape decisions beyond their immediate scope.
Listen to broader concerns. Don’t dismiss what sits in the Circle of Concern. Give your team space to voice frustrations and uncertainties. Help them process what is real, what is noise, and what can be reframed into influence or action.
When leaders help their teams focus on what they can control, they create traction. When teams create traction, they create wins. And when wins are visible and acknowledged, confidence grows.
Notching and celebrating those wins matters. It reinforces progress. It reminds people that their effort has impact. It shifts the emotional tone of the team from reactive to proactive.
Over time, consistent execution inside your sphere of control expands your sphere of influence. You increase the team’s credibility and build trust. What once felt outside your reach begins to move because of the discipline you demonstrated in what you owned.
In the face of what can feel like debilitating uncertainty, action becomes an antidote. Clear ownership. Small wins. Expanded influence.
Confidence is not built from waiting for certainty. It is built from disciplined action inside your circle of control.
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